Three trajectories. Six measurable dimensions. One decision being made — whether your board has made it deliberately or not. Pick a scenario below to see what the European digital stack looks like at the end of this decade.
Each scenario represents a set of decisions the European enterprise and policy coalition could make between now and 2030. None is utopian; none is catastrophic. The difference between them is measurable, and the gap between them is the cost of the posture you choose.
Cost outflow to foreign providers reaches €340 billion annually. Hyperscaler cloud concentration rises past 97%. NIS2 enforcement produces the first headline director prosecutions. European AI remains dependent on US frontier models, with EU inference compute running predominantly on AWS Bedrock and Azure.
The sovereignty conversation has moved from boardrooms to courtrooms. Regulators issue fines. Directors face personal liability. Procurement departments discover that late-stage sovereignty migrations cost 3–5× what proactive ones did in 2026–2028. The organisations that waited end up paying premium to whoever the surviving European suppliers turn out to be.
Every number driving the KPI radar above is drawn from named, public, defensible sources. The Cordero view is opinionated; the evidence base is not. A representative sample of what the model rests on:
If the argument here resonates, the next step is not to read another document. It is a 45-minute conversation — free, confidential, no commercial commitment — to understand where your organisation sits on the horizon, and what the first defensible move looks like.